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When we look back on the whirlwind that is Donald Trump’s presidency, we may very well pinpoint this weekend as the moment his second term spun out of control. The weekend Trump lost control of the narrative — and parts of his political base. It seems clear that the result will be a harsh attack on his political opponents and the rule of law.

The proximate cause of this unraveling is the administration’s handling of the so-called Epstein files. The backstory of Jeffrey Epstein is as well-known as it is sordid: A wealthy financier who engaged in horrific acts of sex trafficking involving underage girls. After he was caught, he reportedly committed suicide in prison.

For years, the right-wing — fed by Trump and his orbit — insisted Epstein was, in fact, murdered in prison to protect his rich and powerful friends. For reasons that have never been clear to me, MAGA conspiracists assumed the beneficiaries of such a cover-up were Democrats.

Trump himself had some relationship with Epstein, as did several others in his circle. Yet, when he took office, his hand-picked Attorney General and FBI Director promised to release records and “client lists” that would expose those who had exploited the underage victims.

Over the last several weeks, the Trump administration has badly mishandled the matter — creating even more suspicion and unrest among his base, even as they attempt to declare that there is no truth to the conspiracy theories and no incriminating client list. Until recently, this controversy had mostly been confined to social media and the far-right.

Not anymore.

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The first indication that this was breaking through to a broader audience came on Tuesday, when Trump deflected a question about Epstein aimed at Pam Bondi:

“Are you still talking about Jeffrey Epstein? This guy’s been talked about for years. Are people still talking about this guy, this creep? That is unbelievable. Do you want to waste the time?”

By the end of the week, reports emerged that the number two official at the FBI, Dan Bongino, might resign over the matter.

Even then, I largely dismissed the story. Having lived through the absurd conspiracy theories aimed at my clients — and at times, myself — I have little patience for entertaining them.

I thought the real story here was the leopard eating the administration’s face: the conspiracists who were lied to are now turning on those who deceived them, recasting Trump’s circle as the new deep state. Amusing, but not exactly insightful.

Then came Saturday.

At 5:21 p.m., Trump posted a very long screed on Truth Social about Epstein, something that certainly isn’t unusual, but this was different. His post was unhinged, but not in the way we are accustomed to him being unhinged. Usually, Trump is leading the parade of misfits, conspiracists and true believers. Here, he seemed to be trying to halt the parade — telling everyone to pack up and go home.

Most importantly, Trump seemed to pivot from insisting that there are no Epstein files to acknowledging their fabled existence. His new story? The files are forgeries “written by Obama, Crooked Hillary, Comey, Brennan, and the

Losers and Criminals of the Biden Administration.” This is not a small difference and raises a host of questions about how, exactly, these fake files were created and why Pam Bondi and Kash Patel have not previously mentioned them.

Instead of focusing on Epstein, he directed the FBI to investigate “Voter Fraud, Political Corruption, ActBlue, [and] The Rigged and Stolen Election of 2020.” While this may sound familiar, in this context it offers new reasons to be concerned. Trump needs action on something to divert attention from Epstein and reunify the MAGA conspiracists. Unsurprisingly, he has landed on going after his political opponents.

So where does this leave us? It’s hard to say, but here are my tentative conclusions:

1. There are Epstein files, and they are embarrassing for Trump or those close to him.
2. He is worried they will eventually be released and thus wants to discredit them in advance.
3. He is going to increase prosecutions of his political opponents to rally his base.

An hour after Trump’s social media post, Steve Bannon took to the stage at Turning Point USA’s Student Action Summit to “deconstruct” Trump’s plan. Bannon, who has proven a strong barometer of Trump’s appeal to the MAGA faithful, boiled down Trump’s message to this: The president will soon have Pam Bondi appoint a special prosecutor to investigate and charge his political opponents. According to Bannon, that investigation will cover, among other things, the activities of Democrats in the 2016 and 2020 elections. He hinted that it may even be used to prosecute those who held the Jan. 6 insurrectionists accountable.

Trump rarely loses control over his own conspiracies and the actions of his followers, which makes the situation particularly dangerous and unpredictable. Like other strongmen, when facing internal dissent, Trump’s instinct is to manufacture an excuse to crackdown on opposition.

He is already doing that with respect to migrants but has unexpectedly run into logistical challenges and a shift in public opinion against the overt cruelty. It is now clear that he will amplify the vilification of his traditional enemies on familiar ground.

This is what happened in the lead-up to Jan. 6. It’s how we ended up with the John Durham special counsel investigation. We must all be alert — and ready — for it to happen again.

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