February 14, 2026

There is a predictability to Donald Trump’s attacks on elections. They always begin with sweeping lies about voting and fraud. Then they progress into court battles. When Republicans inevitably lose, he escalates to abuses of government power. Finally, when all else fails, he resorts to mob violence.

We saw this progression most dramatically in 2020. The lies about mail-in voting began in the spring. That gave way to litigation. Even before the election, he had already used the Department of Justice to falsely tar his political opponents and cast doubt on the outcome.

In the aftermath of his defeat, the pattern remained the same but with more dire consequences for democracy: The lies, the litigation, the misuse of the White House, and then the violence of Jan. 6, 2021.

We saw similar patterns in the 2022 and 2024 cycles. In fact, if you go back further, these same trends were present in 2016. Because Trump ultimately did not contest that election, his efforts have largely been forgotten.

We have spent the last year repeating this cycle. But this time, it’s worse. Trump’s anti-voting rhetoric is more extreme than ever.

He has called for banning mail-in voting, seizing ballots, and placing state and local election administration under national Republican control. He has even mused about canceling elections altogether. And, of course, there has been the lawless abuse of government power to target his political opponents and intimidate institutions that are critical to holding free and fair elections.

We are already deep into the litigation phase, and once again Trump is watching as his side is humiliated in court. Just this week, Republicans lost critical redistricting cases in New York and Virginia that could tilt the broader midcycle gerrymandering battle — the one Trump began in Texas — in favor of Democrats.

The RNC again finds itself running to the Supreme Court to block a defeat it suffered over mail-in voting in Pennsylvania. In Montana — yes, Montana — Republicans are reeling from a defeat in their effort to suppress college-student voting.

Perhaps most importantly, the DOJ was handed another stinging defeat in its effort to obtain unredacted copies of state voter files. The most recent decision came from a federal judge in Michigan appointed to the bench by Trump. Having filed 24 separate lawsuits seeking these records, the DOJ has so far failed to win a single case.

It is no surprise that Trump is increasingly pivoting to his next escalation: Abusing executive power.

This week, his DOJ failed to secure indictments against six Democratic members of Congress for their statements suggesting that members of the military may resist illegal orders. The fact that the DOJ failed is good. But the real story is that they tried.

The same is true of the raid on the Fulton County, Georgia, election offices. Based on the released search warrant affidavit, it appears likely that a federal judge will rule against the DOJ and order the return of the seized materials. But again, much of the damage is done by the fact that the DOJ undertook this effort in the first place.

By the end of the week, Trump was clearly looking to raise the stakes even further. In a series of social media posts, he made clear that he would issue a new executive order to curtail voting rights and tilt the midterms in favor of the GOP.

In addition to imposing a national voter ID requirement and an onerous proof-of-citizenship requirement, he suggested he would ban mail-in ballots “with exceptions for Military, Disability, Illness, or Travel.”

To be clear, Trump does not have the constitutional power or statutory authority to do any of these things.

In response to his last attempt to impose election rules via executive order, a federal judge bluntly wrote that, with regard to election rules, the Constitution gives “no role at all to the President.” She added, “Put simply, our Constitution does not allow the President to impose unilateral changes to federal election procedures.”

Trump will undoubtedly ignore these words, just as he ignores the Constitution itself. And Attorney General Pam Bondi will instruct the DOJ to challenge the rulings in court.

The result will be another series of court defeats for Trump and further fuel for his election denialism. It will feed conspiracy theorists and the right-wing grievance machine.

This is what Trump wants. It is the same toxic brew that led to the events of Jan. 6.

The difference this time is that Trump has a federal paramilitary force that has already proven itself willing to act with violence and disregard for the law. The difference this time is that the safeguards and guardrails around our elections are much weaker.

I will repeat it again: There is a predictability to Donald Trump’s attacks on elections. This time, those of us in the pro-democracy movement must use that predictability to our advantage.

Now, here's some joy from our pawtners in the opposition movement.