There are many reasons why Bannon's plan may ultimately fail — starting with the fact that states run their own elections and no federal officer or official has any right or role in conducting election administration. Trained or not, ICE will have no power to screen voters or check IDs, and the president is powerless to confer that authority on them.
The deeper worry, of course, is that Trump has shown little interest in what the law permits. The question is not just whether he has the legal authority — it is whether anyone will stop him in time if he tries anyway.
But Bannon's larger point is correct. Everywhere we turn, Trump is testing the system to see what works and what he can get away with. Success or failure, he gains valuable information that improves his plans for this fall.
For example, in January, Trump told the New York Times that he regretted not having the military seize the ballot boxes after the 2020 election. Looking back, however, he doubted whether the National Guard would have been able and willing to carry out his wishes: "I don't know that they are sophisticated enough."
I suspect that concern was informed by recent events. Recall that Trump first attempted to intimidate residents of six US cities through the deployment of the National Guard and the U.S. military. After facing weeks of resistance in the courts and the streets, he pulled back those deployments in all but Washington, D.C., which is run by the federal government.
In Minneapolis, he used federal paramilitary forces instead. ICE and CBP proved themselves much more willing to engage in widespread abuse of civil liberties.
Through these test runs, Trump learned an important lesson about the utility of military versus paramilitary force to carry out his wishes. When he told the Times the National Guard is not "sophisticated enough," what he meant was they were too principled and not blindly loyal enough.
The execution of the search warrant in Fulton County, Georgia, for the 2020 election ballots should be understood in the same way.
Yes, it perpetuates the big lie. But it had a greater purpose: to help Pam Bondi gain hands-on insight into the logistics of seizing actual ballots from a large metro county — a dry run for executing such seizures at scale in 2026.
If Trump is using this moment to run drills, so must we — and with the same urgency.
The pro-democracy movement cannot afford to be simply reactive — showing up in court after the damage is done, scrambling to respond to each new provocation. Instead, we need our own test runs, and we need to begin them now.
Election officials in every state should be war-gaming what happens if federal agents show up at or near polling places, working with their attorneys general and governors to establish clear legal tripwires and rapid-response protocols.
Legal and civic groups should be preparing now for a system that could be tested in hundreds of places around the country simultaneously. Every elected official, every secretary of state, every mayor should be put on record now: Will you protect the vote? Will you stand up to federal overreach at the ballot box?
The media has a role to play as well. Too often, Bannon's statements, and those made by others in the MAGA movement, are covered as provocation or performance. They are not. When Bannon describes ICE agents being trained to check IDs as "perfect training for the fall of 2026," that is not hyperbole. It is a roadmap. The legacy media must report on it as one.
Trump and Bannon are not hiding their intentions. They are telling us, plainly, what they are planning and how they are preparing.
They are running test runs. It is time we ran ours.