The Republican redistricting world suffered double blows this week, as their Utah measure to legalize partisan gerrymandering failed to qualify for the ballot and a pro-voter challenge to their gerrymander in Missouri cleared a major milestone.
Meanwhile, we continue to monitor the two states with active redistricting plans in the works. In Virginia, voters are currently casting ballots in a special election that could secure four more Democratic seats in Congress. And in Florida, Republicans are preparing to redraw maps next month.
As always, thanks for reading.
Jen Rice, Reporter
The state of redistricting across the nation
To recap our most recent report on where the math stands nationally: Republicans have potentially gained seven more seats in Congress (up to five in Texas, one in Missouri and one in North Carolina) and could pick up two to five more seats when Florida takes up redistricting next month. And Democrats have potentially picked up six more seats (five in California, one in Utah) and could add four more if their Virginia plan is approved by voters on April 21.
GOP effort to legalize Utah gerrymanders is officially dead (for now)
Republicans gave it their best shot. They submitted fraudulent signatures, misled voters into signing their petition and even brought in leading election grifter Scott Presler. But their effort to put a repeal of Utah’s voter-approved ban on partisan gerrymanders on the ballot this year has died.
After a shambolic campaign that featured their hired canvassers facing accusations of forging signatures, the Utah GOP somehow managed to turn in enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. But they could not defeat a sustained campaign from pro-voting groups that ultimately helped thousands of Utahns remove their signatures.
“Damn might have to call outta work to dunk on Utah Republicans all day,” one social media user joked.
The bottom line: This is good news. Courts locked in a fair map for Utah congressional elections this year, so Democrats may pick up one seat in the House. But expect possible GOP litigation challenging their signature defeat.
‘People’s veto’ referendum has enough verified signatures for the ballot
An effort to oppose the GOP’s Trump-backed gerrymander in Missouri reached a major milestone this week: Organizers announced state officials had verified enough signatures to put the new, GOP-approved congressional map to a statewide vote.
For months, Missouri voters have been fighting to block the map by holding a referendum. As we’ve reported, Republican state officials have been slow-walking the referendum effort in every way possible.
But despite this win, more hurdles remain. We’re still waiting on a key ruling from a judge who will decide whether the new gerrymander is in effect for this year’s midterms — even though the referendum challenging the map now has enough verified signatures to qualify for the ballot. Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins (R) could also drag out the official signature verification process for months, and he’s indicated that he may declare the entire petition unlawful.
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Virginia redistricting vote underway ahead of April 21 election
Virginia voters are now casting early ballots in a referendum special election that would authorize Democrats to redraw the congressional map in response to President Donald Trump’s gerrymanders in other states. Early voting runs until April 18, and election day is April 21.
The election could be confusing for the average voter, who may have received a misleading text from the GOP with former President Barack Obama supposedly urging them to vote against the measure. (For the record, Obama is actually telling Virginians to vote yes.) It doesn’t help that the Democratic PAC (Virginians for Fair Elections) and the Republican PAC (Virginians for Fair Maps) are pretty hard to keep straight.
Meanwhile, election grifter Presler is taking a quick break from his main hustle (SAVE America Act influencer) for his recently announced Virginia “stop the gerrymander” tour dates.
Odds and ends
Why is the GOP so desperate to make it harder to vote? Look no further than North Carolina, where MAGA Senate leader Phil Berger (who led the state’s redistricting effort last year) just lost his primary election by only 23 votes.
Since new polling from the Heritage Foundation shows Virginians oppose gerrymandering, we couldn’t help but notice that they did not ask voters in Texas, Missouri or North Carolina last year whether they wanted new maps.
What we’re doing
This week, Steve Bannon suggested that Trump’s deployment of ICE agents to airports is a “test run” to use them in upcoming elections. It has us wondering: What are local and state officials doing to prepare for the possibility of law enforcement at the polls this year? If you’re concerned, too, it’s worth asking your local officials whether they have an actionable plan to protect voting locations. If you are having those conversations with your officials, drop me a note to let me know what you’re hearing: rice@democracydocket.com.
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