January 12, 2026

Last Wednesday, while sitting in the Oval Office, Donald Trump was reminded by a reporter that after the 2020 election, he had threatened “to use the National Guard to seize election boxes.” Without missing a beat, Trump responded, “Well, I should have.”

When asked whether that would “be an option,” Trump replied, “I don’t know that they are sophisticated enough. You know, they’re good warriors. I’m not sure that they’re sophisticated enough in the ways of crooked Democrats and the way they cheat, to figure that out.”

In that last answer, it is not entirely clear whether Trump was referring to the 2020 election or the upcoming midterms. Like many of his responses, the vagueness preserves both optionality and deniability.

As the question itself suggests, one thing is very clear: In 2020, Trump seriously considered using the military to interfere with vote counting. I suspect that timing ultimately prevented him from doing so. 

By the time he considered the proposal during an Oval Office meeting on Dec. 18, 2020, it was already too late. The Electoral College had met four days earlier. Its members had cast their ballots and sent the results to the National Archives and to Congress, as required by law. The outcome was settled: Biden had won 306 electoral votes, and Trump had won 232.

It was simply too late for Trump to order the military to seize voting equipment and ballots. Appointing a loyalist as special counsel to investigate election officials who had certified Biden as the winner — which was the other option under consideration — would not have produced even bogus indictments in time.

By then, more than 50 courts had rejected the frivolous legal challenges brought by Trump and his allies. The judiciary, therefore, was unlikely to support last-minute efforts to overturn the election. The only remaining option, Trump likely concluded, was to incite a violent insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, in the hope of disrupting the congressional certification process on the date established by law.

The day after his Oval Office meeting, Trump posted on social media: “Statistically impossible to have lost the 2020 Election. Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!”

Unfortunately, the 2026 midterms will be easier for Trump to steal than the 2020 election.

To start, there is no Electoral College to contend with and no need to pressure state legislatures. In addition, Trump and his team are more experienced, more confident and more ruthless. Sadly, our election systems are weaker than ever, having suffered never-ending attacks from election deniers since 2020.

But most importantly, in 2020, government lawyers stood in the way of his plans. The attorney general and his senior deputies refused to go along with this scheme. As did the senior lawyers in Trump’s own White House Counsel’s Office.

In 2026, the government has been thoroughly compromised. Pam Bondi runs the Department of Justice as Trump’s private law firm. The White House is staffed from top to bottom with sycophants and enablers. Government lawyers — including federal prosecutors and FBI agents — would be among the most eager and capable government officials available to seize ballots and manufacture allegations of fraud. After all, that’s what they signed up for in this second administration. 

The cards are already falling into place. Trump’s DOJ is attempting to compile a massive database of highly sensitive voting data on every American citizen who has ever registered to vote or cast a ballot. Where states have objected, the DOJ has sued.

This is not the first time Trump has made his intention to interfere with ballot counting clear. In August, Trump posted on social media that “the States are merely an ‘agent’ for the Federal Government in counting and tabulating the votes. They must do what the Federal Government, as represented by the President of the United States, tells them, FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY, to do.”

Put simply, states must count and tabulate ballots as Trump instructs them to. If they do not, we should expect the Department of Justice and the FBI — perhaps aided by the military — to intervene “for the good of the country.”

While many states will fight back against the DOJ’s illegal demands, we should not expect every state to resist. Some Republican officials may simply agree to follow Trump’s directives, counting the ballots he favors and discarding those he does not.

The result will be litigation in virtually every state. In some places, we will need to defend the right of election officials to follow state law; in others, we will need to challenge the mass disenfranchisement of voters at Trump’s behest. Even worse, our opponents will not only be the Republican Party and its allies but the entire federal government — including the Department of Justice.

Another important caveat we must consider: in 2026, we will have these fights without the benefit of the nation’s largest law firms. When I helped lead the post-election litigation for Joe Biden in 2020, I was at a large law firm. Other large law firms contributed an army of lawyers.

Already, we are seeing large firms pull back from the fight for democracy. While my 60-lawyer firm is involved in every single case in which the DOJ is suing for sensitive voter data, not a single big law firm is by our side.

It is not just litigation that will be harder. So will be gaining and holding the public’s attention. Lawyers like me will rely on public attention and pressure to encourage state and local officials to stand with voters rather than the White House. We will need to stiffen the resolve of election officials who might otherwise be tempted to compromise voters’ rights to avoid direct confrontation with the administration.

Yet, this will be taking place in a media environment that is more fractured than ever. And one in which many legacy media outlets have, like large law firms, capitulated to the Trump regime. As a result, we will have to get our message out by relying on new, independent media outlets rather than legacy institutions.

Finally, we will need voters themselves to advocate for their rights. It is not enough for citizens to cast ballots; they must insist those votes are counted and that results are accurately certified. That may require becoming plaintiffs in lawsuits or speaking out publicly. But it begins with engagement and attention.

For months, I have insisted that we will have midterm elections. Donald Trump cannot cancel them. But I have also been clear that it remains an open question how free and fair they will be. Trump will do everything he can to lie about the elections and, if necessary, rig the outcomes.

That does not mean we are powerless. We have been here before — and we have won. If we stand together, we can do so again in 2026. Failure is not an option we can accept.

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