January 5, 2026

Donald Trump has no settled view of foreign policy or the use of military force. His decision over the weekend to attack Venezuela and seize its president, Nicolás Maduro, cannot be explained by any coherent worldview.

There is no question that Maduro is a dictator who has shown contempt for free and fair elections. But, given his own track record, that hardly seems like something Trump would find objectionable. Not only has Trump embraced other autocrats, but his own conduct after he lost the 2020 election reveals a man willing to abuse power to hold power. 

There is, however, one thing Trump is consistent on: his own political ambitions. And if you listen carefully to his words over the last few days, those self-serving ambitions reveal a lot about his foreign policy. 

This morning, Trump reposted a claim that the action he took in Venezuela is somehow connected to “election rigging” in the 2020 election. Meanwhile, a senior Justice Department official reposted a suggestion that Maduro might try “to plead to lesser charges by proffering evidence that the 2020 election was stolen.”

This is no surprise. Election denialism is the animating principle behind most of Trump’s actions. 

That is not to say that Trump was only motivated by domestic politics in seizing Maduro. It is no secret that he also covets Venezuela’s enormous oil reserves. With the Gulf States, he has been satisfied with lucrative contracts and lavish gifts. In Venezuela’s case, it appears he wanted the whole enterprise.

But those who ignore the rampant conspiracy theories about Venezuela and the 2020 election are missing a key part of the story. And, as someone who falsely believes that he is a victim of election theft, Trump has repeatedly cited Maduro’s own election theft in 2024 as a pretense for his use of force. 

In an interview with Fox News on Saturday morning, Trump explained his thought process explicitly: “The election of Maduro was a disgrace just like my election was a disgrace… It wasn’t a hell of a lot worse than what they did to us in 2020. Our election was a disgrace in 2020, and everyone knows it.”

In some ways, Trump may be showing his political opponents what will happen to them if they declare victory in an election he believes he should have won. Trump has never shied away from mob boss tactics when it comes to getting what he wants. 

In 2020, Trump began contesting the election in court. When that failed, he escalated his rhetoric and lies. Then, on Jan. 6, 2021, he incited a violent insurrection that led to an attack on the U.S. Capitol.

As should be expected, Trump once again showed indifference — or even contempt — for the rule of law and the Constitution. Talking to Fox News on the morning after the attack, Trump complained that Democrats should say, “great job,” not “Oh, gee, maybe it’s not constitutional,” describing this as “the same old stuff that we’ve been hearing for years and years and years.”

This serves as a stark warning of what we face as we head toward the 2026 midterms. Many of the actions Trump took in 2020 to try to stay in power contravened the Constitution. Nearly all of his legal theories were rejected by courts because they were inconsistent with our constitutional system of elections and the peaceful transfer of power.

For Trump, being told that the Constitution protects the right to vote for citizens who oppose him and his party is, in fact, “the same old stuff that” he has “been hearing for years and years and years.” It goes in one ear and out the other. But that doesn’t make it any less correct. It does make it easier for him and his loyalists to discount and disregard.

For the last year, I have been warning about the risk that Trump will subvert the results of the 2026 elections. This could take the form of massive voter suppression, investigations and indictments of his political opponents, or even outright election theft.

In many quarters, I have been dismissed as alarmist. The legacy media, in particular, cannot bring itself to contemplate these results without turning it into a story of two competing political parties operating on a morally level playing field. You see many of these same tendencies in the early coverage of the attack on Venezuela.

I am simply going to repeat what I know to be true.

Donald Trump’s only governing philosophy is to accumulate power. The only dogma within his movement and administration is election denialism. He is surrounded by sycophants who enable, rather than block, his worst instincts. Most importantly, Trump knows that the greatest threat to his power is a Congress controlled by Democrats.

As I watched his performance this weekend and the immediate justifications offered by Republicans, I saw a prelude to what we should expect next November. Trump will disregard the Constitution and Republicans will jump through hoops to defend him. 

Trump has shown us what he is capable of before. He is showing us now that he is worse than ever.

If I am wrong, then you will have worried and prepared for naught. But what if I am right?